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When forecasting reaches senior management, managers often cannot judge its quality. If this is not enough or if there are defects or errors, it is too late to act, even if any of these problems are detected. For this reason, and to avoid the negative effects of poor forecasting in taking action, it is necessary to decide if the forecasting process was appropriate for the scenario. The application of forecasting principles contributes to increasing the accuracy of forecasts, minimizing risk and reducing costs. To do this, it is only necessary to delve deeper into the study of forecasting processes and their improvement . forecasting Photo credits: The principles of forecasting The five steps of good forecasting , in which the necessary control is exercised, can be summarized as follows: Determination of the problem to be solved: the first step is to specify the objectives to be achieved, and then consider what decisions will lead to achieving these goals.

It can be carried out in two moments: Definition of objectives: by consensus and after assessing their predictability. Design a line of action applicable to the different forecasting results. Structuring the problem: breaking it down into parts, identifying possible outcomes before the start of the forecasts and adapting the level of data aggregation to the decisions. Establishment of information sources: we must seek their usefulness, but without neglecting their effectiveness, acting at three levels: Identification of sources: taking into account their consistency and verifiability. In this process USA Student Phone Number List we must look for heterogeneity, which will enrich the results. Data collection: which must be relevant, updated, reliable, valid, exact and objective. Data preparation: Apply cleaning and transformation processes iteratively to optimize the fit. 3. Selection and implementation of the forecasting methodology , for which it is necessary to carry out: Selection based on criteria of quantification, causality, structuring, intelligibility, simplicity and adjustment to the scenario to be forecast. Implementation of the methodology: seeking coherence at all times, we must try to minimize uncertainty, aiming to preserve the realism of the forecasts. Evaluation of the chosen methods: it is the only way to increase adjustment to business needs.



Achieving optimization depends on two actions: Analysis of the applied methods: by carrying out explicit cost-benefit evaluations, the validity of the forecasting methods must be ensured , starting with the reliability and consistency of the data and ending with a comparative study of the different methodological possibilities and an assessment of the validity of the assumptions. Uncertainty assessment: using objective procedures and stating a list of reasons why a forecast could be wrong, which will help calculate the probability of alternative outcomes in the course of the evaluation. Use of forecasting . It is possible to increase forecasting performance by making an effort at two levels: Establishment of presentation criteria: seeking to facilitate the understanding of its content and contribute to its clarity. Continuous improvement: through feedback, learning must be encouraged to improve the results achieved with forecasting. Related posts: The secret formula of predictive analytics Data scientist: neither with you nor without you Trends in data mining.
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